Written by: Fatimah Azzahra Staff of Research and Development

Tensions in the Middle East surged again in June 2025, as Iran and Israel launched direct military strikes against one another, marking one of the most dangerous escalations in recent years. The United States, while initially hesitant, eventually joined the fray with targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns of a wider regional conflict.

The Crisis in Chronology
The chain of escalation began on 1 April 2024, when an Israeli airstrike targeted the Iranian consulate annex in Damascus, Syria, killing high-ranking IRGC officials, such as Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. Iran retaliated on 13 April 2024 with a large-scale missile and drone attack targeting military airbases in Israel.

On June 12, an Israeli precision strike killed six nuclear scientists. Among the list of victims were Gen. Hussein Salami of the Iranian Elite Revolutionary Guard and Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guard’s missile program. 

This caused Iran to retaliate — and that came on 13-14 June 2025, when Tehran launched its largest-ever direct assault on Israel. Over 150 ballistic missiles and 100 drones were fired, many of which were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defence systems with support from the United States and regional allies.

A second precision strike on June 16, 2025, targeting a top-level meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in Tehran. This strike—part of what Israel called Operation Rising Lion—involved six missiles aimed at an underground facility used by high-ranking Iranian officials. The operation targeted suspected nuclear and missile infrastructure inside Iran, particularly in Isfahan and Natanz. 

Iranian state media confirmed the attack injured President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior members, who narrowly escaped via an emergency hatch. The situation worsened when Iran, on 19 June, struck a hospital complex in Beersheba, prompting further Israeli retaliation.

The turning point occurred on 22 June, when the United States launched “Operation Midnight Hammer”, involving B-2 bombers striking underground Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow. President Trump called the strikes “a necessary measure to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons”, though experts caution the damage may be temporary.

On 23 June, Iran retaliated by launching missiles at the US Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. No casualties were reported, but satellite images confirmed minor structural damage, particularly to a secure communications dome.

International Responses
Global responses varied. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged restraint, warning of “a fire no one can control”. Meanwhile, G7 countries called for renewed nuclear talks, and China and Russia condemned the US strikes. 

Despite numerous calls for de-escalation, diplomatic efforts largely fell short. Countries like Oman and Qatar, which have historically served as backchannels between Iran and the West, attempted quiet mediation, but failed to bring both parties to the table. The European Union urged for emergency talks, but divisions among member states over how to handle Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Israel’s military actions weakened their collective stance. Meanwhile, the United States, often positioned as a key broker in Middle East diplomacy, has lost credibility in the eyes of several actors after actively backing Israel’s operations.  

As a result, meaningful diplomatic breakthroughs never materialised, leaving military action to fill the vacuum. Despite the announcement of a ceasefire on 23 June, tensions remain high.

This conflict is not new. Iran and Israel have clashed for years over ideology, power, and especially Iran’s nuclear programme. However, what makes this time different is how fast things escalated and how openly all sides, including the US, got involved – and failed to create peace.

Even with the ceasefire announced on 23 June, the situation still feels unstable. Both Iran and Israel haven’t really backed down, and with actors like Hezbollah and the Houthis showing support for Iran, it’s hard to say if the violence is really over.

Lessons for Indonesia
For Indonesia, this matters more than it may seem. As a country that often speaks up for peace and supports diplomacy over war for its fundamentals, Indonesia can play a role in pushing for dialogue and de-escalation. 

At a glance, the conflict might seem far and has no effect on Indonesia. However, Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil and petrochemicals, which are highly important for the world economy. Furthermore, Iran controls a large part of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a short and safe trade route for cargo ships. If the strait were to be closed, trade would have to be conducted twice as long and expensive as cargo ships would have to re-route to a more dangerous and longer route to reach Indonesia. 

The world might also be impacted by higher prices and delayed shipment of gases, petrochemicals, and crude oil. However, the Southeast Asian region in this instance might be impacted more than any region as it is far in terms of proximity and there are no shorter alternative routes for cargo ships besides the Hormuz.

References
Al Jazeera. (2025, June 13). Iran launches waves of missiles at israel in response to attacks. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/13/hundreds-of-missiles-launched-at-israel-as-iran-vows-retaliation

Epstein, J. (2025, July 11). Images show damage at US base Iran attacked with missiles. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-damage-us-base-iran-attacked-with-missiles-2025-7

Geh, H. (2025, July 14). Iran’s president injured in Israeli missile blitz on Tehran security meeting before he’s bundled through em… The Sun. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35833477/iranian-president-injured-israel-missile-attack/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Mason, J., Cornwell, A., & Hafezi, P. (2025, June 24). Blasts shake Tehran after furious Trump tells Israel to stop strikes to preserve truce deal. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/

Middle East Eye. (2025). Iran won this war with defiant strikes. Israel lost. Middle East Eye. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran-won-war-defiant-strikes-israel-lost

Mohamad Ali Harisi. (2025, June 24). Iran vs. Israel: What just happened? The National. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025/06/24/iran-vs-israel-what-just-happened/

Reuters Staff. (2025, June 13). US military helped stop iranian missiles heading to israel, officials say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-helped-stop-iranian-missiles-heading-israel-officials-say-2025-06-13/

The Australian. (2024). Iranian President “wounded in huge Israeli strike.” Theaustralian.com.au. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/iran-president-wounded-in-huge-israeli-strike/news-story/2ccef7e2082ed51cceb8c9da9a166b64?utm